The ACC tournament kicks off Tuesday with a matinee matchup between Georgia Tech and Florida State. With the Yellow Jackets coming into this matchup buzzing, our college basketball picks believe the Seminoles are in for a stinging.
The ACC Tournament tips off on Tuesday afternoon in Greensboro, North Carolina where the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets face the Florida State Seminoles. These schools were near the bottom of the conference standings with the Yellow Jackets ranked 13th out of 15 teams and the Noles just one spot ahead of them.
Oddsmakers expect a close contest with college basketball odds opening with this game as a pick’em with an Over/Under of 146.5. Here are my best free Florida State vs. Georgia Tech college basketball beting picks and predictions for Tuesday, March 7.
Florida State vs Georgia Tech best odds
Florida State vs Georgia Tech picks and predictions
If you look at the overall regular season numbers between these teams, the results are fairly similar. The Seminoles went 7-13 in conference play with an average scoring margin of -6.9 points per game while the Yellow Jackets went 6-14 with a margin of -6.6 ppg.
However, if you look at how these teams have played recently, Georgia Tech has been far more impressive going 6-2 straight up and 7-0 against the spread in its last eight games. Although one of those victories was an unlined contest against tiny Florida Tech, the others were all against ACC foes.
Even in the Yellow Jackets’ two defeats during that span they were very competitive on the road, falling by a single point to Wake Forest and having a lead against Pitt until the final nine minutes.
Meanwhile, the Seminoles have won just two of their last 11 games while going 1-8 ATS in their previous nine.
Through February 12, the Yellow Jackets were just 250th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (99.3) according to Bart Torvik. However, in five games against Div 1 opponents since then, they raised their adjusted offensive efficiency to 117.1 despite the absence of injured point guard Deivon Smith.
They’ve also been respectable on the defensive end of the floor during that span posting a 101.8 adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Seminoles have struggled over the same time span. Over their last five games the Noles rank 274th in adjusted offensive efficiency (99.0) while ranking 286th on defense (111.7). Back the team in better form and grab the Yellow Jackets on the moneyline.
My best bet: Georgia Tech moneyline (-110 at William Hill)
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Florida State vs Georgia Tech spread analysis
The Yellow Jackets have looked awful for most of the season but have turned things around lately. They enter the ACC Tourney having won three in a row while covering in their last eight games with betting lines.
Last week they played Syracuse on the road and won by 20 points before traveling to Boston College and coming away with a 73-65 victory.
The Seminoles are coming off a 22-point defeat to Virginia Tech and have lost six of their last seven games. That said, their lone win during that span came on the road against a Miami team that won the ACC regular season championship.
This is a matchup of weakness against weakness with Georgia Tech’s anemic offense facing off against Florida State’s pathetic defense. The Yellow Jackets are 285th in the country in effective field goal percentage (48.5%) but the Seminoles are just 312th in opponent EFG% (53.3%).
However, Georgia Tech has played much better on offense lately and has a 58.6 EFG% in its last three games while FSU has allowed a 60.7 EFG% over the same span. Guard Miles Kelly leads Georgia Tech with 14.2 ppg and Lance Terry (10.2 ppg) has stepped up lately — dropping at least 17 points in three-straight contests.
Although the Yellow Jackets have been shooting poorly over the course of the season, they’ve done a good job of limiting turnovers. They are 41st in the country in turnover rate (15.6%) with that number dropping to just 11.4% in their last three games.
Georgia Tech has struggled on the glass, but Florida State is even worse in that area and ranks outside the Top 300 with a 46.7% rebound rate.
These conference foes faced off just once during the regular season with the Noles prevailing 75-64 in Tallahassee on Jan. 7.
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Florida State vs Georgia Tech Over/Under analysis
With their poor offense and below-average pace, the Yellow Jackets played plenty of lower-scoring games earlier in the season. However, they’ve been much more efficient on offense lately which has led to the Over cashing in their last five games.
They were averaging just 61.4 ppg through their first 13 conference games, but that number has surged to 76.7 ppg in their last seven games against ACC foes.
The Noles play at a much faster pace and are 95th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while ranking 39th in average length of possession on offense (16.3 seconds).
They have several scoring threats in their lineup, with three players averaging more than 13 points per game. Matthew Cleveland is the best of the bunch and leads the way with 14.0 points and 7.6 rebounds per game.
Florida State has needed to score because its defense has been so awful. The Noles rank 339th in the country in scoring defense with 76.6 ppg and their 77.0 ppg allowed in conference play is dead-last in the ACC.
Neither team shoots well from deep but the Yellow Jackets are far better at defending the 3-ball. They are 17th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (29.9%) while the Noles rank 353rd (37.9%).
Florida State vs Georgia Tech betting trend to know
The Seminoles are 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida State vs. Georgia Tech.
Florida State vs Georgia Tech game info
|ACC Round 1
|Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC
|Tuesday, March 7, 2023
|2:00 p.m. ET