HomeHorse Racing13/3/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Canberra, Canberra Cup day

13/3/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Canberra, Canberra Cup day

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The Canberra Carnival concludes on Monday, where it is Canberra Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out five metres from the 1000m-380m; Out three metres for the remainder.

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Canberra Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Canberra Cup

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Race 1. (13:26) Opc It Hcp (C1) 1400m

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Back Me

1 Flying Destiny (Bet Now: $2.15) looks the straight bat option in the opener. Michael Freedman trained gelding that has raced over 1300m at Hawkesbury his past couple, the latest being last Saturday where he second to what looks a potential Stakes class animal in Bundeena. That form clearly reads well for this, he should get a cheap run on speed and prove hard to run down.

Danger

4 Belleistic Kids (Bet Now: $3.40) has been pretty good in three runs back from a spell for the Joseph/Jones stable. He ran last Sunday at Moruya over 1400m and was good from off the speed when a close up fourth to Jalmari, beaten just under a length. Blinkers Off/Visors On is interesting. If that can allow him to see closer in the run, he is one of the leading chances.

Long Shot

8 Memorialise (Bet Now: $11.00) is knocking on the door to win. He had specking at odds last time over 1400m at Nowra and loomed to win after a good run from off the speed. Just failed to get there when a narrow second to Westgrove. Has that 1400m run under the belt and that should hold him in good stead for this. Definite winning threat.

Race 2. (14:01) Tab Lickety Split Mdn 1000m

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Back Me

2 November Rhythm (Bet Now: $1.55) is on the short side but I think he has a bit on these. He has placed in both runs this time in, each time being close up in defeat. Ran third fresh at Hawkesbury before going to Gosford where he led and looked home but was nabbed near the peg by Idalo. The depth here is very thin, he should find the front and all things being equal, he should be winning.

Danger

7 La Mia Via (Bet Now: $4.20) is a daughter of Your Song for Keith Dryden that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since October 11 at Goulburn on testing ground when off the speed and working home well in the straight, clocking decent enough late splits when second to News From Paris. Resumes without a public trial but resuming on the home deck, you’d assume she’s ready to go.

Long Shot

1 Little Be Known (Bet Now: $18.00) can pinch a first four spot. Did too much work on speed fresh over 900m at Newcastle before going to Queanbeyan where they opted for a sit and it worked because he ran a much improved race when third to Rhumbadu. Like him back up to 1000m and if the tactics are adopted from last start here, he can be one for multiples.

Race 3. (14:36) Turfcare Australia Mdn Hcp 1400m

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Back Me

Landed with 3 Kokoshnik (Bet Now: $4.00). Team Freedman trained filly that has been solid enough in two career outings. Game second on debut at Muswellbrook before going to Canterbury where she did work to land on speed and that early burn just told late in the piece behind Windshadow. I think 1400m will be fine and I think she finds the front comfortably. From there, she’ll take running down.

Danger

4 Regal Inheritance (Bet Now: $3.60) is the key threat. Daughter of Capitalist for Gary Portelli that was close up in defeat fresh at Kembla. She then went to Wyong where she was wide no cover and actually didn’t do a bad job in defeat behind Speak Up. 1400m should be fine, likely sits outside Kokoshnik and from there, those two control. Commands respect.

Long Shot

Staying at 1400m I hate for 5 Galaxy Reign (Bet Now: $11.00) but I reckon he is a coming maiden winner. Formerly with the Griffiths/De Kock camp, he had his first run for Rex Cole over 1400m at Wagga and was good from the back without threatening, finishing third, beaten just over four lengths. If this was 1600m, I’d have him on top. Just staying at 1400m is the knock.

Race 4. (15:11) Hit 104.7 Hcp (C2) 1200m

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Back Me

7 Snappy Jim (Bet Now: $8.00) is a son of Squamosa for Nick Olive that is first up. He didn’t do a bad job towards the end of last prep, winning two races before a close up fourth over the mile at the Sapphire Coast. Not really a noted fresh performer but the trial at Wagga was solid enough and first up at 1400m signals some level of intent.

Danger

8 Lethal Lady (Bet Now: $4.20) is crying out for more ground and she gets it here. She was six weeks between runs when contesting a 1000m Highway at Randwick last time and was pretty good from the back behind an absolute rocket in Mogo Magic, clocking decent enough late splits. Think the rise in trip is ideal and can settle closer in the run I think.

Long Shot

4 In De Sun Iwilcome (Bet Now: $8.50) is a son of I Am Invincible that resumes for Keith Dryden. His last run came on October 30 at Goulburn over 1400m when doing work to land on speed but that early burn told late, tiring to finish down the track behind Constructionmaster. Interesting he resumes without a trial and resumes at 1200m, and is trained on the track. Definite market and yard watch.

Race 5. (15:51) Nvs Paving & Landscaping-Bm65 1000m

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Back Me

4 Lonrioli (Bet Now: $2.25) is Team Freedman trained filly that resumes. She hasn’t raced since the end of the Spring where she finished down the track in the Reginald Allen. Just one soft 900m trial to get ready but should land on speed quite comfortably from the gate and gets T Clark aboard, so she has a bit in her corner to sprint well fresh. Watch the market.

Danger

7 Beau Rock (Bet Now: $5.50) has returned in super order and commands respect. Gratz Vella trained gelding that was a big winner at this track/distance last time. He was wide no cover for the trip and despite that hard run, he kept finding under pressure to fend them off for a big win. Potentially, a sticky gate to overcome, but gets in very well after the 3kg claim and the depth here isn’t deep.

Long Shot

12 Eurosay (Bet Now: $46.00) is an improver at a big price. He ran behind Beau Rock in the race mentioned above where he was back near last in the run and was never a threat, but made up some headway and his late splits were pretty good. Damon Budler rides the horse better than most, he is back on this time around and could pinch a first four spot.

Race 6. (16:31) Canberra Guineas 1400m

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Back Me

1 Wolverine (Bet Now: $2.90) may as well go back to New Zealand or find a Class 3 at Taree if she can’t put this field away. Seriously…she should be $1.50, not $3+. She has panels on these surely. Far from disgraced fresh in the Light Fingers before being close up in defeat in the Surround. Third up from a spell, hard fit…despite the wide gate, she has too much on this lot. Absolute moral.

Danger

Beware the unbeaten horse so respecting 8 Smooth Sailing (Bet Now: $6.50). 2/2 to start the career, producing an electric finale to win on debut at Nowra before proving that was no fluke when winning at Gosford, not handling the tight track but class came to the fore. 1400m looks like it should be fine and should be strong at the end. Hard to beat.

Long Shot

7 Shalook (Bet Now: $27.00) faces her toughest test to date, but she is absolutely flying for Mitch Beer. Latest win came over 1175m at Albury where she gave them a start and a beating in a dominant display, running great late splits. The query is 1400m, but she is a filly that is hard fit, in form and could pinch a first four spot at a price.

Race 7. (17:16) Canberra Cup 2000m

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Back Me

3 Sacramento (Bet Now: $3.60) is the second moral on the program. #TeamThey knew that Sacramento wasn’t leading last Saturday in the Randwick Stakes and the end result was a strong fourth to stablemate Sir Lucan, who was heavily backed and got complete control. Clark is back on this, he should find the front comfortably and is looking to make it three wins in the race.

Danger

9 Almania (Bet Now: $5.50) is just about near D-Day IMO. Kris Lees trained import that has been pretty good in all three runs this time in so fourth up now, hard fit, he gets his chance. He ran two weeks ago at Randwick and was there to win the race I thought. Just failed to finish it off and ended up being a close up third to Glory Daze. He gets good weight relief and his best is clearly good enough.

Long Shot

2 Explosive Jack (Bet Now: $10.00) is back on track. Just a run fresh at The Valley behind Pounding before going to the Carlyon Cup where he got a fair way out of his ground and was never a threat but liked the way he found the line, beaten just under four lengths by Pounding in a much better effort. Third up now so he should be hard fit and getting to 2000m, he’s one of the leading contenders for sure.

Race 8. (17:53) Canberra Times (Bm75) 1600m

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Back Me

4 Ironbark Artie (Bet Now: $4.00) on top in the get out. Team Snowden trains this gelding, who looks hard to beat. He ran at the midweeks at Warwick Farm last time and was good from just off the speed when third to a quality three year old, Major Beel. Back to this sort of level and Blinkers first time, he appeals as a key winning chance. He’ll do me.

Danger

7 Twig (Bet Now: $4.40) looks to bring strong enough form lines to take this out. Matty Dale trained mare that has run in Federal races her past two, the latest being over 1400m here and found the line well, but had no answers for the finale produced by an in form mare at the time, Invertational. She has done little wrong this time in and the form around her reads pretty well for this.

Long Shot

3 Cyborg (Bet Now: $16.00) is capable with his best. He was thrown in the deep end last time in the Canberra Mile where he got back in the run and made up little ground, just outclassed behind Caesars Palace. This looks more his level and the depth here is nowhere near as strong. Not sure he wins, but can pinch a first four spot at a price.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Wolverine

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 3 Sacramento

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 7 Snappy Jim

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 7, 12

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 7

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