HomeHorse Racing10/3/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Kembla Grange, Kembla Grange...

10/3/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Kembla Grange, Kembla Grange Classic day

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A bumper eight race program has been set down for Kembla Grange on Friday for Kembla Grange Classic Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Kembla Grange Classic 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Kembla Grange Classic

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Race 1. (13:15) Pines Brewing Company Mdn 1600m

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Back Me

I thought 1 Burnt By Bernie (Bet Now: $3.50) should be closer to favourite. Annabel Neasham trained gelding that has been kept on ice since Jan 25 at Gosford at a midweek maiden where he was near the speed throughout and battled on pretty well in defeat when second to State Of America. He trialled last week at Warwick Farm and gee I thought he trucked behind them. I think come jump time, he’ll be favourite.

Danger

2 Eau De Vie (Bet Now: $2.05) is the current favourite and understandably so on paper given she has metro form next to her name. Latest run came over the mile at Warwick Farm and kept finding the line, but seemingly had her chance when third to Hollywood Hero. Drops a fair bit in depth, but has a tricky draw to overcome, so I think she is a touch of unders but does command respect given the form.

Long Shot

11 We Don’t Roam (Bet Now: $9.50) could be a sleeper. She ran over 1400m at Mudgee last time in a maiden and I thought they may have figured out the key to her. They rode her cold and she found the line really well late in the piece when third to Iknowastar. Two winners have come out of that race so the form is strong and I reckon with similar tactics adopted, she’s in the mix.

Race 2. (13:50) Balter Mdn Plate 1400m

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Back Me

13 Vancouver’s Gem (Bet Now: $3.20) is a daughter of Vancouver that resumes for Jason Coyle. This girl had a three run prep in the Spring to start her career, her best run coming at start two here when a close up third to Amigos No More. Trialled a couple of weeks ago at Hawkesbury and ran third, but I thought she moved nicely and could have won the trial had she been extended. Maps to get a lovely run in transit and first up at 1400m signals intent.

Danger

14 Zarni (Bet Now: $2.70) has been pretty good in two career outings, both coming here. Debuted with an eye catching fourth to Avebury before going to 1400m where they rode with more intent and she tried her guts out, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Arts. Think she only has to run up to that effort to be around the mark.

Long Shot

2 Riley Park (Bet Now: $5.00) is knocking on the door to win a maiden. Whether it is here, not sure, but he is racing well. He shouldn’t be a maiden because he should have won at Taree last time. He got badly held up at a wrong stage and eventually got out, surging hard late to just miss in a blanket finish. Gets a suck run from the inside gate and is a definite winning chance.

Race 3. (14:25) Carlton Draught Mdn Plate 1200m

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Back Me

Happy to side with 1 Givara (Bet Now: $2.00). Team Hawkes trained gelding that is second up after resuming 1200m at Warwick Farm on wet ground where he was a bit one paced when initially asked by Avdulla but picked up and was pretty good to the line late in the piece when third to Cool Jakey. Back on top of the ground and back a fair way in overall depth, he appeals.

Danger

4 Dakarai (Bet Now: $4.60) is getting towards D-Day. He showed promise when with Wendy Kelly before being sent to Chris Waller. He resumed at Hawkesbury where he had the run of the race behind the speed and was quite plain late in the piece behind Sequestered. Tick over trial at Rosehill last week was a good piece of work and his best, his best Victorian form, can certainly take this out.

Long Shot

13 I Am Jade (Bet Now: $14.00) is yet to see a firm deck in three career outings so I think she can be a big improver here. She resumed on testing ground at Warwick Farm and failed to fire, not handling the conditions at all when down the track behind Secaution. She has trialled well when on dry ground so I think she does have talent and a win wouldn’t shock at all.

Race 4. (15:05) Pfd Food A J ‘Bert’ Illye-Bm94 1200m

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Back Me

5 Bacchanalia (Bet Now: $2.05) is a son of Exceed And Excel for James Cummings that resumes. He had a three run Spring prep and overall, you’d have to mark him down as disappointing, though he did run second to a Group l talent in Remarque, which does read well for this. Not a noted fresh horse, but has a touch of quality his best is clearly good enough to take this out.

Danger

I think you have to respect 4 The Face (Bet Now: $6.00). Jump/run type that has trialled up super for his return and with that racing style, he’s going to be extremely well suited on a firm Kembla deck. Yes, lacks the class of some of those nominated, but there is a genuine question mark on how well the likes of those high in the market are going, and he’ll give himself every chance.

Long Shot

2 Flying Crazy (Bet Now: $4.50) is sneaky flying for the Ryan/Alexiou camp. Just one soft trial leading into the resumption three weeks ago at Rosehill where he was slightly held up in the straight, not really getting clear air, and I thought he was pretty good in defeat behind Andermatt. Good second up record and up in trip, I think he appeals as one of the hardest to beat.

Race 5. (15:40) Kembla Grange Stayers Cup 2400m

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Back Me

Happy to have a peanut each way on 12 Lord Desanimaux (Bet Now: $7.50). Terry Robinson trained gelding that doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates but is honest and a testing 2400m will be ideal for him. He ran over 2000m here last time out where he got a mile out of his ground and was never a threat but really liked the way he found the line late when fourth to Goldman. He tumbles in weight, 2400m is no issue and has the metro form at the trip to prove hard to beat.

Danger

7 I Am The Empire (Bet Now: $6.50) is a lightly raced son of Camelot for Annabel Neasham that commands respect. I thought there was plenty of merit to his win over 2140m at Goulburn last time given Collett took off early, making a sustained run, and he was knocking up late but had enough in hand to fight back and win. On breeding, 2400m should be fine, and gets a suck run from the gate.

Long Shot

2 Bastida (Bet Now: $12.00) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. Needed the run fresh on the Kenso track behind Wategos. He then went to 2100m at Warwick Farm and wasn’t too bad from the back, albeit was never a threat to Kirkeby. He is a third up winner, he maps to settle much closer in the run and has more upside than most.

Race 6. (16:20) Tab Midway (Bm64) 1600m

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Back Me

1 Pure Hydrogen (Bet Now: $3.40) on top. John Thompson trained three year old that was working up to another win and it came in a moderate Maiden/Class One at Canberra, but the manner in which he put them away, giving them a start and a beating was impressive. His confidence is sky high, he strikes a thin 64 to my eye and hard fit, in form, he’ll do me.

Danger

2 Spats Pav Bowie (Bet Now: $4.40) can bounce back. He put together a couple of wins before racing here in a Provincial Championship Qualifier and he tried his guts out from in front but just lacked the class to go with them late behind Essonne. The query is the mile but if he gets the front and gets some level of control, he’ll take running down.

Long Shot

4 Savvy Legend (Bet Now: $5.00) has been up a while and is looking like he wants the paddock but the stable has found form and this guy is capable with his best. He ran over the mile at Newcastle last time and didn’t quite get clear air when Bullock was probing so be somewhat forgiving of the effort behind Casual Connection. Not sure he wins, but can pinch a first four spot.

Race 7. (16:55) Kembla Grange Classic 1600m

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Back Me

7 Call Di (Bet Now: $3.10) should love the 1600m here. Ryan/Alexiou filly that resumed with a strong maiden win on the Kenso track at Randwick before going to the Angus Armanasco at Sandown where I thought Olly slaughtered her, riding a very negative race and IMO, a half decent steer, and she wins instead of a third to Shuffle Dancer. Rising in trip is perfect. Just want more initiative re the ride.

Danger

Giving respect to the class, which is 6 Pavitra (Bet Now: $2.70) for the Freedman camp. She resumed against the Mares three weeks ago in the Millie Fox and I thought did a god job in defeat given the last 600m was around 33.5 and for a filly with eyes towards the Oaks, the run was a definite pass mark. Like her up in trip, back to her own age/sex, lands on speed and takes running down.

Long Shot

10 Whisky Wisdom (Bet Now: $31.00) is a filly I do have time for. Ben Smith trains this three year old, who spanked them in a maiden two back at Kembla before going to the Midway at Rosehill where she seemed to resent being between runners and in tight, but once clear, she found the line really well when fourth to Cheerful Legend. Clearly this is a throw at the stumps but wouldn’t shock if she pinched a first four spot.

Race 8. (17:30) Canadian Club (Bm64) 1400m

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Back Me

8 Bindi’s Choice (Bet Now: $4.00) is getting better with racing and is the one to beat in the get out. Her maiden win came last time out over 1200m here. She was able to lob 1/1 and really, it was just a matter of Ford pushing the button and once he did, the filly exploded and put a gap on her rivals in a dominant display. The way she finds the line, 1400m is fine and confident she can measure up.

Danger

7 Toesonthenose (Bet Now: $4.20) is a son of Ocean Park for Mark Newnham that resumes. This guy hasn’t raced since May 18 on the Kenso track at Randwick where he had every chance behind the speed but was quite weak at the end when fourth to Tympanist. Two trials this time in to get ready and to the eye, they have been fair. But, he has a bit of quality when right, so watch the market.

Long Shot

1 Standing Order (Bet Now: $6.00) can be an improver here. He resumed at the midweeks over 1200m at Warwick Farm when wide no cover for the trip and that run just told late, tiring behind Invincible Vision. Unknown at 1400m but has that tough 1200m under the belt and maps to get a much better run in transit. Dangerous.

BEST BET: Race One Number 1 Burnt By Bernie

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 Pure Hydrogen

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 12 Lord Desanimaux

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 7, 9, 12

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 2, 5, 6, 7, 10

Leg Four: 1, 7, 8, 9

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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